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Nick Daschel

Nick Daschel

Nick Daschel is a veteran sports writer and columnist who has worked on the West coast for nearly three decades. Nick has covered the Pac-10 for about 15 years, primarily focusing on the Northwest schools.

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UW-USC: Perfect Storm For Upset?

UW-USC: Perfect Storm For Upset?

Wednesday, September 16, 2009 12:00 AM
Posted By: Nick Daschel
In: Pac-10

I won’t go as far as Washington’s Quinton Richardson and Chris Polk, who guarantee a win over USC on Saturday in Husky Stadium.

 

If USC were to play Washington 100 times, the Trojans would win 99. But there’s always a chance for that 1-in-100 shot. If ever there were a time when that situation could unfold, it’s Saturday.

 

At a minimum, you shouldn’t get bored with Saturday’s game. And here’s why you might want to stick around until the end, just in case that 1-in-100 chance plays out:

 

1. Despite evidence to the contrary, the Trojans are human. As Dr. Lou might say, they put their pants same way the Huskies do. Humans are prone to emotional swings, and right now, USC is coming off the dramatic high of an 18-15 win at Ohio State. If USC were coming home to play San Jose State, it wouldn’t matter. But another road trip for a bunch of 19-22 year olds against a motivated team in a hostile stadium? That’s no gimme.

 

2. While at USC, Pete Carroll’s Trojans have done OK in the second of back-to-back road games, going 12-2. But not all situations are equal. For example, USC’s lone back-to-back last year started with the painfully easy 69-0 win at Washington State. Twice times the Trojans concluded a back-to-back roadie with a walkover opponent. On two other occasions, USC lost the first of back-to-backs (Cal, 2003 and Oregon State, 2006), and the Trojans went looking for a scalp the following week.

 

For a true comparison, it has to start with an emotional or meaningful win in the first game followed by a second opponent with at least a pulse. It’s been no cakewalk. Here are nine examples:

 
Year
First game
Second game
Comment
2001
Notre Dame, W 27-16

Arizona, W 41-34

Needed a 62-yard interception return for a TD to beat a 5-6 Arizona team.

2002
Colorado, W 40-3
Kansas State, L 27-20
Backup QB led ‘Cats to a 21-point second half lead
2003
Notre Dame, W 45-14
Washington, W 43-23
USC up 20-14 at halftime vs. a future UW bowl team
2004
BYU, W 42-10
Stanford, W 31-28

Second half comeback needed to wipe out 28-17 halftime deficit

2004
WSU, W 42-12
Oregon State, W 28-20
USC trailed 13-7 at halftime
2005
Oregon, W 45-23
Arizona State, W 38-28

Scored four fourth-quarter touchdowns after trailing ASU 21-3 at halftime

2006
Arizona, W 20-3
WSU, W 28-22
 
Cougars were 35 yards away from an upset
2007
Notre Dame, W 38-0
Oregon, L 24-17
Outplayed and game controlled by Oregon
2007
California, W 24-17
Arizona State, W 44-24
Game was 17-17 late in the second quarter
 
 

3. Washington is as confident as it has been in a couple years. The Huskies have direction, purpose and, finally, a win, coming over last Saturday’s victory over Idaho. They’re coming into the USC game healthy, with a quarterback who is a beast to stop in Jake Locker, a hint of a running game, and a few playmakers on the outside. Washington is going to score on USC; the question is, can the Huskies keep the Trojans offense from taking over the game.

 

4. Maybe it won’t matter, because USC might be so good it can just out-talent the Huskies. But this is one game where Steve Sarkisian will have a distinct advantage. Except for freshman quarterback Matt Barkley, Sark – as USC’s former offensive coordinator -- knows the Trojans players’ tendencies on offense. The Huskies’ defense needs all the help it can get, and this should narrow the talent gap a little.

 
 

Nick Daschel covers the Pac-10 for Buster Sports, and can be reached at ndaschel@bustersports.com

You can also follow Nick on Twitter

 

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Comments

On Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 12:42 AM
Geezer says:
Good research, interesting pattern of behavior.
I'm afraid SC will break some big plays, then
wear us down; but till they do, what have we
got to lose?
On Wednesday, September 16, 2009 - 3:01 PM
Suckit says:
Don't tell me you are drinking the UDUB bowl game kool-aid too Nick. You are generally really spot on, but this Husky team has no chance against the Toejams.

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